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Florida 2000 and Washington 2004

A Study of Two Elections

Wallace-Wells, B.   2003.   In the tank: the intellectual decline of AEI - American Enterprise Institute.   Washington Monthly, Dec 2003. Available online at www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1316/is_12_35/ai_111897438. Accessed August 21, 2005.

Wand, J.N., K.W. Shotts, J.S. Sekhon, W.R. Mebane, and M.C. Herron.   2000.   Voting Irregularities in Palm Beach County.   U.S. Civil Rights Commission, Final Report and Recommendations. Available online at http://elections.fas.harvard.edu/election2000/palmbeach.pdf. Accessed June 12, 2005.

Wand, J. N., Shotts, K. W., Sekhon, J. S., Mebane, W. R., Herron, M. C., & Brady, H. E.   2001.   The Butterfly Did It: The Aberrant Vote for Buchanan in Palm Beach County, Florida.   American Political Science Review, 95, pp. 793-810.

Washington Secretary of State's Office (WA Sec. of State).   2004.   Washington State 2004 General Elections. Governor. Original Results by County.   WA Secretary of State Online, 2004. Available at http://vote.wa.gov/general/resultsbycounty.aspx?o=3001&t=s. Accessed May 9, 2005.

Washington Secretary of State's Office (WA Sec. of State).   2004b.   Washington State 2004 General Elections. Governor. Machine Recount Results by County.   WA Secretary of State Online, 2004. Available at http://vote.wa.gov/general/recount_resultsbycounty.htm. Accessed May 9, 2005.

Washington Secretary of State's Office (WA Sec. of State).   2004c.   Washington State 2004 General Elections. Governor. Manual Recount Results by County.   WA Secretary of State Online, 2004. Available at http://vote.wa.gov/general/recount_resultsbycounty.aspx. Accessed May 9, 2005.

Washington Secretary of State's Office (WA Sec. of State).   2004d.   Manual Recount Procedures: Washington 2004.   WA Secretary of State Online, 2004. Available at www.secstate.wa.gov/elections/pdf/Governor%20Manual%20Recount%20Guidelines2.pdf and www.secstate.wa.gov/elections/pdf/Manual%20Recount%20FAQ.pdf. Accessed May 29, 2005.

Washington Secretary of State's Office (WA Sec. of State).   2004e.   Washington State 2004 General Elections. Presidential Election Results by County.   WA Secretary of State Online, 2004. Available at http://vote.wa.gov/general/resultsbycounty.aspx?o=1000&t=f. Accessed August 28, 2005.

Washington Secretary of State's Office (WA Sec. of State).   2004f.   Washington State 2004 General Elections. Senatorial Election Results by County.   WA Secretary of State Online, 2004. Available at http://vote.wa.gov/general/resultsbycounty.aspx?o=1112&t=f. Accessed August 28, 2005.

Washington Secretary of State's Office (WA Sec. of State).   2004g.   Washington State 2004 General Elections. Status of Voter Turnout & Ballot Tabulation by County.   WA Secretary of State Online, 2004. Available at http://vote.wa.gov/general/status.aspx. Accessed September 4, 2005.

Washington Secretary of State's Office (WA Sec. of State).   2005.   Federal Election Survey data for the Fall 2004 Washington State election. Provided in spreadsheet form via personal communication with the Washington Secretary of State's office.   May, 16, 2005.

Washington Secretary of State's Office (WA Sec. of State).   2005b.   Certifications of Voting Systems.   WA Secretary of State Online, 2005b. Available at http://www.secstate.wa.gov/elections/votingsystems.aspx. Accessed August 31, 2005.

Weaver, J. and T. Henderson.   2001.   Panel's conclusions may have overstated findings.   Miami Herald, June 6, 2001. Available online at www.freerepublic.com/perl/redirect?u=http://www.miami.com/herald/content/news/local/florida/digdocs/091424.htm. Accessed June 26, 2005.

Weisberg, S.   1985.   Applied Linear Regression.   John Wiley and Sons, New York, 1985.

Wikipedia Online.  2005.   Florida Central Voter File.   Available online at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida_Central_Voter_File. Accessed May 9, 2005.

Wikipedia Online.  2005b.   U.S. presidential election, 2000.   Available online at www.answers.com/topic/u-s-presidential-election-2000. Accessed May 17, 2005.

Wikipedia Online.  2005c.   Choicepoint.   Available online at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Choicepoint. Accessed May 17, 2005.

Wikipedia Online.  2005d.   Voting Rights Act.   Available online at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_Rights_Act. Accessed June 26, 2005.

Wikipedia Online.  2005e.   John Lott.   Available online at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Lott. Accessed August 17, 2005.

Wolter, K., D. Jergovic, W. Moore, J. Murphy, C. O'Muircheartaigh.   2003.   Reliability of the Uncertified Ballots in the 2000 Presidential Election in Florida.   Amer. Statistician, 57, 1. Pgs. 1-14. Available online at www.amstat.org/misc/PresidentialElectionBallots.pdf. Accessed May 17, 2005.

Figures

Washington 2004 vs. Florida 2000
Figure 1:   Washington 2004 vs. Florida 2000
  1. Residuals for the Gregoire/Rossi race are taken from the Secretary of State's data. The "raw" residual rate is simply the difference between the totals for the machine recount for all candidates and all ballots cast. These figures do not include write-ins, which I was only able to obtain for King County. The maximum shown here is based on the raw rate with King County write-ins removed. The minimum assumes the raw rate minus the King County fractional write-in rate applied to all ballots cast. The actual figure is likely to be between these values.
  2. Based on combined undervotes and overvotes determinedly by the NORC (2001) to meet some or all Florida county level standards for determining voter intent.



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